Bank of England Interest Rate Decision March 2026: Will Rates Be Cut on 19 March?

The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meets on Thursday 19 March 2026 to decide whether to cut, hold, or raise the UK base rate. With just six days to go, the decision is looking increasingly likely to be a hold — here’s the latest on what to expect and what it means for your money.

Where Do Interest Rates Stand Now?

The Bank of England base rate is currently 3.75%, having been cut six times since the rate-cutting cycle began in August 2024 from a peak of 5.25%. However, the pace of cuts has slowed significantly. The MPC held rates steady in February 2026, and markets are now pricing in a longer pause through spring.

Will Rates Be Cut on 19 March?

The short answer: probably not. Market expectations for a March cut have collapsed. Interest rate swaps data now suggests only around a 30% chance of a cut — down from roughly 90% just two weeks ago. A hold is the firm market consensus.

The main reasons for the dramatic shift:

• Inflation is sticky. UK CPI inflation was 3.0% in January 2026, still well above the Bank’s 2% target. The BoE now expects CPI to average 2.5% across 2026 — higher than its previous forecast of 2.1%.
• Geopolitical uncertainty. The escalation of conflict in the Middle East (which intensified from late February 2026) has pushed oil and gas prices higher, creating fresh inflation risks that make the MPC cautious about cutting too fast.
• Wage growth. UK wage growth remains elevated, which tends to keep services inflation high — the component the MPC watches most closely.

What Are the Experts Saying?

• Markets: Pricing in just one rate cut for the whole of 2026, likely in the second half of the year
• ING & John Charcol: Now expect the first cut to come in April rather than March, with a total of 1–2 cuts in 2026
• Deutsche Bank: Still expects two cuts in 2026, though this is now a minority view
• BoE’s own guidance: Expects inflation to fall towards 2% by spring 2026, but acknowledges significant upside risks from energy prices and global trade disruption

What Does This Mean for Borrowers?

Mortgage holders: If you’re on a variable or tracker mortgage, your payments are unlikely to fall any time soon. Fixed-rate mortgage deals have already priced in limited cuts — two-year fixes sit around 4.5–5.0% and five-year fixes around 4.2–4.7%. If you’re coming off a cheap fix, prepare for higher monthly payments.

Personal loan and credit card borrowers: Rates on unsecured borrowing remain elevated. If you’re carrying expensive debt, consider a 0% balance transfer card or debt consolidation loan while rates are stable.

What Does This Mean for Savers?

Good news — for now. A rate hold means savings rates stay attractive. Easy-access cash ISAs are still paying above 4.5% AER from top providers such as Trading 212 (4.68%) and Plum (4.66%), and fixed-rate accounts offer security if you want to lock in before any eventual cuts. The longer the BoE holds, the longer savers benefit.

But don’t get complacent. When cuts do come, savings rates will follow quickly. If you’re happy with current rates, consider fixing for 1–2 years to protect your returns.

When Will We Know?

The MPC announcement is at 12:00 noon on Thursday 19 March 2026 — just six days away. The decision, minutes, and voting split will be published simultaneously. We’ll update this article with the result and what it means for you as soon as it drops.

The Bottom Line

Don’t wait for rate cuts that may not come in March. If you’re a saver, lock in today’s strong rates before cuts arrive — likely in April or later. If you’re a borrower, budget for rates staying around current levels through at least mid-2026. The era of rapid rate cuts appears to be over — at least for now.

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